US Stock on Focus

Friday, August 19, 2005

Google issue stock worth $4 billion

DJ: -4.22 Nasdaq:-9.07 S&P:-1.22 (S&P future before market open: -3.1)

10-Yr Note +17/32 at 4.20%

Goldman Sachs raises long-term oil price forecast to $60 from $45; crude futures, though, continue to slide

MO and tobacco stocks rally as related class action suit is decertified by Ill. Supreme Court

Several retailers issuing guidance below consensus estimates

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Today market start in the
RED. My emotion is Down with the market seeing all the position drop with the broad market. I was most constipate by AAPL, since still to have doubt that i might make to wrong decision to stay, since i started with a Day trade entry. The overall daily graph of AAPL shows mild retracement, however, history show when AAPL go up strongly, it will retracement for a long while. Anyway, since i have decided to stay, will still stay through and see what happen next.

Most retail sector has a mild rebound before the market closed today. Hopefully this will provide move space for the market to rebound. All position initiated this week are in
RED.

Active position: TXU, AAPL, NTES, JWN.

TXU -0.66 (94.10) : TXU position is still in positive for me. However, the credit gain for Bull Put Spread is now $60 drop from $70 yesterday.

AAPL -0.85 (46.30) : AAPL make a new low of previous day. Daily graph show mild retracement. Still be able to hang on to it at this point. The Sep 45 Call now is just worth $2.65 compared to $3.20 yesterday. Now, I'm at loss of $105 on this position. This is the position that make me constipate the most, since it is a straight call.

Lesson I thought I've learnt at this moment from AAPL: Never convert a day trade into short term position especially when my entry is very high. This position might be most probably a losing position due to buy high sell low. However, it is in mid retracement, hopefully it will have to momentum to crawl back up, and at least make a new high of previous day, and higher low. Overall, the stock is still bullish without any negative news.

NTES -1.40 (73.65): NTES has been drop from 78 from pass 3 sessions. Perhaps it's time for a rebound. Due to the retail sector bearish, Internet retail is affected too. Since, NTES is quite bullish, hopefully it will rebound on tonight session. However, the chances is slim since tonight is the expiration Friday. More bearish market will be expected. Currently, the Bull Put Spread credit loss is now $50 down from yesterday $35. Furthermore, NTES is going to know the door of $73.20, Oh god.... please up up up.... ;p

JWN -0.26 (34.04): JWN has a mild retracement on yesterday huge gain. 22dma and 50dma meet at 34.60, creating a strong resistance to JWN. However, a mild bullish market will help to push it above. Oct 32.50 Call current value at $2.65 compare to $2.90 yesterday. Paper loss at $25 as of today.

Thursday, August 18, 2005

Story Stock: Nordstrom (JWN)

34.40 +3.28: Late Tuesday, Nordstrom reported sound results for the fiscal second quarter, sending shares up nearly 10% during the regular trading session. The Seattle-based luxury retailer posted earnings of $148.9 million, or $0.53 per share, compared to $106.9 million, or $0.37 per share, for the same quarter last year. Helped by better than expected comparable store sales and disciplined cost controls, earnings topped the consensus EPS estimate of $0.47. Management noted that the results "reflect ongoing merchandise execution, inventory productivity, and expense management improvements".

On the top-line, total sales for the quarter climbed 7.8% to $2.1 billion, from $2.0 billion a year earlier, on same store sales growth of 6.2%. Despite disappointing same store sales growth in July - traditionally a quiet month for retailers - quarterly comps were lifted by strong regular price sales and a favorable response to fall merchandise by customers. This is an encouraging sign heading into the peak of the back-to-school season.

As a result of continued sharp execution and inventory management, selling, general, and administrative expenses, as a percent of sales, declined by 1.2% during the quarter. Moreover, gross margin improved to 36.0% of sales, compared to 34.9% in the year ago period, further reflecting Nordstrom's strong sell through and lower markdown rates.

Given the stronger than expected results, Nordstrom lifted its full year profit outlook from $1.70-$1.75 per share to $1.80-$1.90 per share - above the consensus estimate of $1.77 per share. For the third quarter, the company expects earnings in the range of $0.30-$0.35 per share and between 3-5% same store sales growth. This compares to analysts' forecast of $0.32 per share.

While the weaker than expected July same store sales growth, which ended two years of positive results, prompted concerns over whether the disappointment would carry forward, Nordstrom's second quarter results underscores its strong appeal to high-end customers and continued strength in the luxury retail market. Despite record level gasoline prices, consumer spending has proven to be remarkably resilient, particularly among higher income consumers, and continues to support growth momentum.

Although JWN slipped over 20% from its all-time high of $37.96 in July following weaker than expected comps, it is still up over 50% in the past year. As consumer spending remains robust in the face of increasing gasoline-related pressures, Nordstrom is poised to continue its positive earnings momentum. The second quarter marks the eleventh consecutive period in which the company has topped expectations. Nevertheless, while the company remains well positioned against a favorable economic backdrop, investors should be watchful of the impact of rising oil prices and overall trends in the retail sector. At current price levels, Nordstrom is trading at 19.4x the FY05 EPS estimate of $1.77, compared to 24.0x for May Department Stores (MAY) and 15.4x for Federated Department Stores (FD).

Slight Rebound powered by HPQ

Yesterday the US Stock Market rebounded slightly with DJ +37.26 , Nasdaq +8.09, S&P 0.90. 10-yr note -18/32 at 4.27%

Strong Q3 reports from HPQ and AMAT and plunging oil prices (below $65/bbl) overshadow inflation worries following larger than expected rise in July PPI.

I'm in 3 active position. TXU, AAPL, NTES.

TXU rebounded +1.08 (94.76). Thanks to slightly bullish sentiment plus TXU today announced 2 new CEO positions, naming of James A. Burke chairman and CEO of TXU Energy, the company's retail business, and Michael T. McCall chairman and CEO of TXU Wholesale, the business that optimizes the purchases and sales of energy for generation and retail businesses in the competitive wholesale market.

The appointment of two highly capable and knowledgeable leaders into these key leadership roles enables TXU to better focus on the distinct retail and wholesale markets, resulting in enhanced customer service, increased efficiency, and stronger results.

This result in pread paper profit increase to
$70 from low of $40 yesterday.

AAPL rebounded +0.90 (47.15). Thanks to the good solidquarter earning result from HPQ which involve in PC related business too. My Sep 45 Call options has crawl back to 3.20 and cut my loss as high as $100 back to $50. Whew.... Hopefully it will continue to shot up tonite. Besides, learn that AAPL once gap up, will continue to go up sharp during the first 20 to 30 mins. Especially with good news stimulating the price. Also, read a news reporting a rumor that AAPL will be offering iTunes on Google website. Suspecting this news pushing the AAPL stock to 52 weeks new high on last friday.

NTES was down -0.64 (75.05). Hopefully it just a healthy retracement due to 2 strong up sessions 3 days ago. Still very bullish on this stock. My spread credit of $180 now worth $215 bringing my paper loss of $35. This drop might caused by announcement of NTES announcing ending her service on MP3 searching to avoid legal issue. Shouldn't affect much since NTES main strong revenue from Online PC Game.

New position added: JWN +3.18 (34.30)

Initiated the position on 1 contract of NOV 32.50 Call @ 2.90 when stock price at $34.35. Reason for entry is JWN is a strong retail stock and popular on her customer service. Recently, has drop dramtically due to the Retail sector drop. Today, rebounded strongly due to its strong quarter earning reports. Options price just break even at 2.90 during close.

What have I learn from today market? Same as yesterday, HPQ is a big corp. and it's quarter earning result and future outlook can easily drive the market. AAPL has help to train my tolerance level, that has prevented me to get out of bullish stock when the got into retracement.

What can I perform better? Hmm... perhaps more sleep and gain back some health. The health has driving me down recently and emotionally vulnerable, easy to get frustrated.

Wednesday, August 17, 2005

Walmart Dampen the market

Yesterday, Walmart announced her earnings. She warned on the coming quarter earnings and blamed higher gasoline prices for curbing the spending plans of its low-income shoppers. This has somehow comfirm the gasoline effect on the retail area and create a very strong bearish sentiment that bring the Dow Jone -120.93, Nasdaq -29.98, S&P 14.35

I'm in two active position TXU and AAPL.

TXU was down -1.90 (93.68) , since I'm doing Bull Put Spread on Sep 90 and 85, I'm still OK. But the paper gain has dropped to $40 from as high as $80. $150 will be collected if stock price remain above $90 by the expiration.

AAPL was down -1.43(46.35). I'm having a lost of $100 when the Sep 45 Call drop to $2.70 from my purchase price of $3.70(47.55). I might have cut the lost on $3.50 when the market open, however, I have let myself to let it free flow and ride the wave all the way with limited lost of $370 to gain the experience. I have a few experience that, when i concentrate on the daily gain, I miss the further gain the following few days when i met a bullish stock. Therefore i turn this day trade into Short term trade since i'm bullish on this stock.

New position added : NTES -1.51 (75.69)

I'm doing spread on NTES due to it's high premium and bullish earning report recently. I have collected $1.80 on the Bull Put Spread on Sep 75 and 70. The stock price i got in around $76 since I have queue on $1.80 credit when the DJ is -40, S&P -4. Hopefully the stock stay above $75 before the expiration, and I think it will.

What have i learn from today market? I learn that when a big company like WMT provide warning, it will shake the the market, and pull down the whole market. But how long and how deep...? From previously experience, it won't last long, as long as the consumer spending remain at tolerable level, and more better company earning report come out.

Hopefully, Good news from HPQ will help bring AAPL and narrow my lost on AAPL, and provide some bullish sentiment to the market. However, one bad thing is September is a traditional bearish market. Perhaps, I should sit tight, and initiate some bearish position.